So which is it?

As part of his effort to render talk of a diplomatic solution in the Middle East tantamount to surrender, NRO's Stanley Kurtz argues that Israel's withdrawal from Lebanon back in 2000 "has resulted in more terrorist strikes, not less." That's interesting, especially in light of Matt's recent - and diametrically opposite - take on this very same issue:

Hezbollah attacks on Israelis were far lower in the post-withdrawal era than in the pre-withdrawal era. Withdrawal from Lebanon brought other benefits as well. With Israeli forces no longer on Lebanese territory, the nominal rationale for Syria's presence in Lebanon was undercut. This, in turn, played a key role in the Lebanon's recent political evolution in the direction of independence and democracy.

Though my understanding of the effects of the withdrawal is more in line with Matt's interpretation, I'd be open to changing my mind if Kurtz provided some evidence to back up his claim.