Milton Friedman on Federal Spending

I was struck by a comment in one of Milton Friedman's recent interviews:

"During the 1990s, you had the combination that is best for holding down spending. A Democrat in the White House and Republicans controlling Congress. That's what produced the surpluses at the end of the Clinton era, and during the whole of that era there was a trend for spending to come down."

Milton falls into the same trap as many Republicans (and Democrats) of continuing to view the political parties through anachronistic lenses. As with the Labor party in Britain, Democrats in the US are increasingly fiscal conservatives; likewise, republicans came to power on promises of "compassionate conservatism." As political parties have done throughout history, they are competing over a shifting middle ground.

I agree that a Democratic victory in the White House would cause a decrease in Federal spending, but not merely because of conflict between those two branches of government. Bush, like Regan, has purposefully ballooned defense spending and increased US debt by cutting taxes. Whatever party takes control in 2008 will have to make painful financial decisions. As the opposition party, the Democrats are most likely to abandon the failed Republican policies and put the country on a new path; as the party in power, the Republicans are most likely to continue their trend of "staying the course," as the ship of state continues to sink.