Thursday, July 20, 2006

Invasion?

According to the Associated Press, Israel is hinting at a full-scale invasion. Based on the article:
"There is a possibility — all our options are open. At the moment, it's a very limited, specific incursion but all options remain open," Capt. Jacob Dallal, an Israeli army spokesman, told The Associated Press on Wednesday.

This does not sound like a hint to me. Given the amount of international pressure, and Hezbollah's control of terrain, it is unlikely that Israel would invade. Israel would also gain very little from invading; indeed, it is unclear how much they gain from their current bombing campaign. Although they have killed Hezbollah guerrillas, destroyed missiles and command posts, they have also created 500,000 refugees, killed a couple hundred civilians, and created a renewed hatred in the Middle East. That is the price of a 'disproportionate' response.

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