Gambling on '08
One of my favorite sites on the internet is TradeSports.com, eventhough I've never bet on a sporting event there. That's because TradeSports also has a market for political bets, including the US primaries and 2008 presidential election. For finance lovers, you can sometimes find arbitrage opportunities for easy money (we spent a good deal of time in a finance seminar at Dartmouth one spring making arbitrage profits off Pope contracts).
I've been following the contracts for the Democratic nominee since 2005. Hillary Clinton has topped the list for 2 years, with a current ask price of $49.9 and a volume of 89,500 contracts (this means the market believes that Hillary has roughly a 49.9% chance of winning). Barack Obama contracts are selling for $18.7.
For someone who worries about the rise of the royal presidency and the triumph of cold political calculation, these are not happy numbers.
On the bright side, contracts for Democrats winning the Presidency in 2008 are selling for $55.9.
The market is often wrong, and to make a little money proving my point, I'm going to sell some Hillary contracts short and go long on Barack Obama.
Posted by Peter
I've been following the contracts for the Democratic nominee since 2005. Hillary Clinton has topped the list for 2 years, with a current ask price of $49.9 and a volume of 89,500 contracts (this means the market believes that Hillary has roughly a 49.9% chance of winning). Barack Obama contracts are selling for $18.7.
For someone who worries about the rise of the royal presidency and the triumph of cold political calculation, these are not happy numbers.
On the bright side, contracts for Democrats winning the Presidency in 2008 are selling for $55.9.
The market is often wrong, and to make a little money proving my point, I'm going to sell some Hillary contracts short and go long on Barack Obama.
Posted by Peter
posted by PWN at 12:51 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home