Thursday, June 08, 2006

US Economy

I think a lot of people fail to appreciate the incredible economic power of the United States. Some of my more radical, liberal friends speak of the US as if it is an economic disaster, using generalizations such as, "The US economy sucks right now." While I believe the economy could be doing much better (and worry about the long term consequences of our large budget and current account deficits, not to mention the consequences of increased inequality), it is helpful to put our problems in context. The US GDP for 2005 was roughly $12.49 trillion (Official Exchange Rate), which, for those of us who like marveling at all the zeros, is $12,490,000,000,000.

According to the most recent estimate by the White House, the economy will grow by 3.6% this year. That means the economy will be $449 billion ($449,640,000,000) larger next year. That’s a lot of clams. As the quip goes, a billion here and a billion there, and pretty soon we’re talking about real money. How much is $449 billion?

The GDP of Poland was $246 billion in 2005, which means that the US addition to world economic output, this year, is equivalent to adding 1.86 Polands worth of GDP to the world economy.

The GDP of Mexico was $693 billion in 2005. So the economic growth of the US this year is equivalent to 64% of the total economic output of Mexico, a country with 107 million people.

The size of the US economy is such that a 3.6% growth rate, which is now considered mediocre by most people, adds more to the world economy than the productive output of entire countries, or regions in the case of sub-Saharan Africa.

There are many problems with the US economy: real wages are falling for most people, the wealthy now have a greater portion of the economic pie than at any previous time, American citizens have too much debt, the US government has too much debt, inflation is gaining momentum, gas prices are absurdly over-priced, etc.

However, let us not forget that the US has enjoyed economic prosperity and growth like no nation in history, and, despite our multitude of problems, most evidence suggests that we will continue growing at reasonable rates for at least the next 5 years.

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