Iran: Positive Steps
Incredible. I underestimated the diplomats in this administration.
Here's what they're supposedly offering Iran:
1) US nuclear technology, on top of European help in building light-water nuclear reactors
2) Airplane parts
3) Support in joining the WTO
4) Iran does not have to give up uranium enrichment, it only has to "suspend" it.
If this is indeed what the US and Europe are offering, I believe Iran will accept it in return for suspending enrichment. To most observers, this looks like a major concession. The US has moved, in a very short time period, from calling Iran an axis of evil to offering nuclear technology. In reality, offering US nuclear technology is probably more symbolic than substantive, since the Europeans have already offered to help build light-water reactors. The reactors will be well monitored. The US is certainly not providing technology for enriching Uranium, which is everyone's biggest concern.
Offering airplane parts is easy. US sanctions have decreased the safety of Iran's Airbus planes. The offer for support in joining the WTO is certainly positive. Isolating the regime obviously has not help over the last 20+ years, and allowing Iran to enter the WTO could yield positve changes. In particular, a strong merchant elite in Iran, opposed to war and laws which suppress economic growth, could sow the seeds for a slow, peaceful revolution in Iran.
The key to this package is the "concession" that Iran does not have to give up the right to uranium enrichment, it only has to suspend that enrichment for a long time. This is once again symbolic. Diplomatic agreements are easily and carelessly broken anyways, particularly in the long-term. But, for Iran, this is the starting point for their negotiations. It is a requisite for their honor. They refuse to accept western dominance of their affairs. Since Iran would never give up the right to enrichment peacefully, the suspension of that agreement "for a long time" is as good as it can get.
This is diplomacy with some promise. It will hopefully achieve what the US and Europe really desire: halting Iran's increasing capabilities to develop nuclear weapons. Iran can take this as a significant victory and halt its enrichment program for a while.
The willingness of the US to engage diplomatically and these symbolic concessions should give Iran confidence in its security. I still believe that Iran wants nuclear weapons in the long term, but these latest overtures should be enough for it to stop its program ... for now.
I'm interested to see US hawks get their panties in a bunch over this one.
Here's what they're supposedly offering Iran:
1) US nuclear technology, on top of European help in building light-water nuclear reactors
2) Airplane parts
3) Support in joining the WTO
4) Iran does not have to give up uranium enrichment, it only has to "suspend" it.
If this is indeed what the US and Europe are offering, I believe Iran will accept it in return for suspending enrichment. To most observers, this looks like a major concession. The US has moved, in a very short time period, from calling Iran an axis of evil to offering nuclear technology. In reality, offering US nuclear technology is probably more symbolic than substantive, since the Europeans have already offered to help build light-water reactors. The reactors will be well monitored. The US is certainly not providing technology for enriching Uranium, which is everyone's biggest concern.
Offering airplane parts is easy. US sanctions have decreased the safety of Iran's Airbus planes. The offer for support in joining the WTO is certainly positive. Isolating the regime obviously has not help over the last 20+ years, and allowing Iran to enter the WTO could yield positve changes. In particular, a strong merchant elite in Iran, opposed to war and laws which suppress economic growth, could sow the seeds for a slow, peaceful revolution in Iran.
The key to this package is the "concession" that Iran does not have to give up the right to uranium enrichment, it only has to suspend that enrichment for a long time. This is once again symbolic. Diplomatic agreements are easily and carelessly broken anyways, particularly in the long-term. But, for Iran, this is the starting point for their negotiations. It is a requisite for their honor. They refuse to accept western dominance of their affairs. Since Iran would never give up the right to enrichment peacefully, the suspension of that agreement "for a long time" is as good as it can get.
This is diplomacy with some promise. It will hopefully achieve what the US and Europe really desire: halting Iran's increasing capabilities to develop nuclear weapons. Iran can take this as a significant victory and halt its enrichment program for a while.
The willingness of the US to engage diplomatically and these symbolic concessions should give Iran confidence in its security. I still believe that Iran wants nuclear weapons in the long term, but these latest overtures should be enough for it to stop its program ... for now.
I'm interested to see US hawks get their panties in a bunch over this one.
posted by PWN at 10:56 PM
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