Sunday, July 16, 2006

Who Controls Lebanon?

Some pundits were arguing on TV today that Israel should cease its attacks and allow the Lebanese government to control Hezbollah. Although this sounds like a brilliant strategy, it rests on the crucial assumption that the Lebanese government would be able to control Hezbollah. In reality, Hezbollah seems more powerful than the state government; it is the de facto government of southern Lebanon.

Negotiations are the only possible means of achieving peace. Israel is surrounded by countries that detest its existence. Unless it wants to commit mass genocide in the Middle East, the Israeli government will have to negotiate the end to this conflict. Given the current antagonism in the region, I don't believe that either side wants to stop the fighting yet, and I would wager that we are going to see Israeli ground forces cross the border into Southern Lebanon.

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